Macro Flash

Daily catalysts and market outlook in one view

Updated daily before the NY session to keep your bias aligned with the macro tape.

What is inside

All key events for the day, mapped to FX impact and paired with the current market outlook.

Use this page as your pre-session briefing and align execution to the highest impact themes.

US-Iran peace accord formally signed in Geneva today, sealing Strait of Hormuz reopening and triggering the largest single-week oil decline since 2020 while Asia stocks record all-time highs.

Risk Environment

Global risk tone and liquidity conditions shaping the session.

Global Risk Tone

Risk-On

Liquidity Regime

Normal
Confidence: 80%

Today's Key Events

All scheduled and unscheduled catalysts from the daily macro update.

🚨 BREAKING
US-Iran Peace Accord Formal Signing Ceremony in Geneva (June 19) — Hormuz fully reopens; nuclear talks 60-day window begins. Massive oil decline, equity rally, CHF/JPY safe-haven unwinding; AUD/CAD, USD/CAD major beneficiaries.
🔴 HIGH
BoE MPC June 2026 Rate Decision (12:00 GMT) — Hold at 3.75% widely expected; watch vote split for hawkish dissenters (2+ dissenters = GBP bullish, hawkish hold); GBP/USD, EUR/GBP key movers.
🟡 MEDIUM
SNB June 2026 Quarterly Monetary Policy Assessment (07:30 GMT) — Hold at 0.00% confirmed; watch FX intervention language and new inflation/GDP forecasts; EUR/CHF, USD/CHF reaction.
🟢 LOW
US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim June (14:00 GMT) — Consensus ~67; better-than-expected print supportive of USD; inflation expectations component key for Fed rate path.
🟢 LOW
Canada Retail Sales April 2026 (12:30 GMT) — Consensus +0.2% MoM; weak outcome reinforces BoC hold narrative and supports USD/CAD long.

Market Snapshot

Cross-asset view of key markets shaping FX flows.

US Equities

S&P 500 ~7,420 | -1.21% Thursday close | Selling (Wed FOMC-driven; Friday futures pointing higher post-Iran signing)

Asian Markets

Nikkei 225 71,477 +2.0% record high | KOSPI 8,977 record | CSI 300 +2.4% | Dominant theme: Iran peace deal + AI chip rally

Bonds

US 10Y 4.46% | US 2Y ~4.05% | Steepening from FOMC hawkish dot plot revision; yields fell from May highs on oil collapse

Commodities

WTI $75.96 -1.08% | Brent $79.26 -0.36% | Oil down ~10% on week — Hormuz reopening; Copper $6.37 stable

US Dollar Index

DXY 100.04 | -0.12% | Slight pullback from post-FOMC 100.62 high; holding above 100 key level

Gold (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD $4,153.95 | -$55.20 session change | -1.31% | Key level to watch: $4,100 support / $4,300 resistance

Key Themes

Dominant market drivers affecting currency pairs today.

Iran-US Peace Deal Signed in Geneva BEARISH
Risk assets surge globally while safe-haven JPY and CHF face headwinds; oil-linked CAD loses support as Brent collapses toward $79; AUD benefits from improved global risk appetite and China demand recovery.
CHF CAD
Fed Warsh Hawkish Pivot, Dot Plot Raised BULLISH
USD benefits from hawkish repricing with 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike; easing bias entirely removed by new Chair Warsh; USD/JPY and EUR/USD face downside pressure as dollar demand resumes.
USD
BOJ Raises Rates to 1.00% — 31-Year High BULLISH
JPY receives fundamental support from normalisation milestone; carry trades funded in JPY are unwinding on a 3-6 month basis; JPY/USD yield differential narrowing systematically as Ueda-era policy continues.
JPY
Oil Collapse Removes Commodity Currency Premium BEARISH
Brent down ~10% in a week as Strait of Hormuz reopens; CAD loses primary macro support as energy exports face headwinds; NZD marginally softer as commodity sentiment weakens from recent highs.
CAD NZD
ECB Hikes First Time Since 2023 — Hawkish EUR BULLISH
ECB deposit rate raised to 2.25% on June 11; EUR benefits near-term but GDP downgrade to 0.8% caps upside; EUR/USD range-bound as Fed-ECB differential stays tight for now.
EUR
Gold Under Pressure From Oil Collapse and Hawkish Fed BEARISH
XAU/USD dropped from $5,600 ATH to $4,154 as geopolitical risk premium evaporates on Iran deal; AUD benefits as a gold producer with some residual safe-haven demand supporting; CHF less demanded as peace removes crisis bid.
CHF AUD