Central Bank policy and macro stance in one view

Bias: Hiking cycle resumed in 2026; cash rate at 4.10% after two successive hikes in February and March. Further hikes possible if energy-driven inflation persists.

RBA hiked 25bps on Feb 3 and again on March 17, taking cash rate to 4.10% (5-4 vote in March). Trimmed mean CPI at 3.4% YoY; RBA inflation forecast for June 2026 at 3.7% trimmed mean. Assistant Governor Kent warned Iran oil shock could push neutral rate higher. Deputy Governor Hauser flagged stagflation risk. Doves on board voted to hold (not cut), signalling no reversal imminent.

Bias: Gradual rate-hike cycle intact at 0.75%. BOJ signalling further hikes if growth and prices evolve as projected; Middle East uncertainty causing near-term pause.

March 19 BOJ held at 0.75% (8-1 vote; Takata dissented for hike). Real rates still significantly negative. BOJ Summary of Opinions (March 30) confirmed financial conditions remain loose; hikes appropriate gradually. Ueda (April 17) offered no clear rate signal ahead of April 27-28 meeting; cited need to monitor Iran war impact on growth. JGB 10Y at 2.41%. Markets price ~40% chance of April hike.

Bias: Deposit rate on hold at 2.00% since June 2025. Optionality retained: cut, hold, or hike equally possible depending on energy and second-round inflation trajectory.

March 19 ECB held rates unchanged for sixth consecutive meeting. Staff projections: headline inflation 2.6% in 2026 (revised up from ~2%), GDP 0.9%. Lagarde abandoned 'good place' language, stressed meeting-by-meeting approach. End-March speech signalled rate hike possible if inflation overshoots. April 16 ECB watchers conference: Nagel described outlook as 'between baseline and adverse scenario'; Kazaks said 'we'll see' on April hike. April meeting is April 17.

Bias: Policy rate at 0.00%. SNB on hold with heightened FX intervention willingness to cap CHF appreciation. Inflation barely positive; negative rate risk if franc surges.

March 19 SNB held at 0%. Schlegel told CNBC SNB uses both interest rate and FX intervention as tools; heightened willingness to intervene is the current mode. Inflation 0.1% in February; projected 0.5% average for 2026. Iran war adds deflationary risk via CHF safe-haven appreciation. Next SNB meeting June 2026.

Bias: OCR on hold at 2.25% since November 2025. Watching energy shock and second-round effects; vigilant stance with upside rate bias for remainder of 2026.

April 8 RBNZ held OCR at 2.25% by consensus. CPI 3.1% in December 2025 quarter (above 1-3% band); RBNZ projecting jump to 4.2% in June quarter. Unemployment at 5.4% (11-year high). Governor Breman said short-lived supply shocks can be 'looked through', but if energy costs embed into expectations, rate hikes required. Shadow board majority favours OCR at 2.50-3.00% in 12 months.

Bias: On hold at 3.50-3.75%. Treating tariff and energy-driven inflation as largely transitory; awaiting further disinflation before any additional cuts. One cut pencilled into 2026 median dot.

March FOMC held unanimously (Miran dissented for cut). Powell March 18 press conference cited core PCE ~3% with 'between a half and three-quarters' tariff-driven; won't look through energy inflation until tariff inflation box is checked. Williams April 7 speech reinforced patient, data-dependent stance. FOMC projects one cut in 2026.

Bias: Bank Rate on hold at 3.75% (unanimous). Energy shock from Middle East war forces pause to easing cycle; secondary inflationary risks elevated, but growth very weak.

MPC unanimously held at 3.75% on March 18. CPI 3% in February; projected to rise to 3-3.5% by Q3. GDP near flat in Q1. Unemployment 5.2%. IMF/BOE forecasts UK growth downgraded to 0.7% for 2026. Individual MPC members (e.g., Catherine Mann) signalled possible hike considerations if second-round effects materialise. Next meeting April 30.

Bias: Policy rate on hold at 2.25% since Dec 2025. Balanced risks: domestic contraction vs. Middle East-driven energy inflation. Reactive stance, no pre-commitment to direction.

March 18 BoC held at 2.25%. GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 2025. Unemployment rose to 6.7% in February; 84,000 jobs lost in February. CPI eased to 1.8% in February. Energy prices now pushing inflation higher. Macklem statement removed language that rate 'remains appropriate', replaced with reactive 'stand ready to respond'. Markets price ~92% chance of hold at April 29 meeting.