Central Bank policy and macro stance in one view

Bias: Held all three key rates unchanged on 23 July 2026 as expected, pausing after June's first hike since 2023 to assess the intensity and duration of the renewed Middle East energy shock; Governing Council reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no explicit forward guidance, but markets price a high probability of a 25bp hike to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting.

Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and main refinancing rate at 2.40%, unanimous decision. No newer official ECB communication found since 23 July; per bank tone update rules the 23 July stance remains authoritative. German 10Y Bund yield remains near a ~15-year high around 3.26% as firm euro-area growth momentum and elevated energy prices from the Hormuz crisis keep the market pricing well above 90% odds of a September hike, with the deposit rate seen near 2.75-2.80% by early 2027.

Bias: Held the policy rate at 1.00% on 31 July 2026 as universally expected following June's hike to a 30-year high, and the 10 August Summary of Opinions from that meeting confirmed an unambiguously hawkish internal debate: board members flagged that underlying CPI is approaching 2% and that 'greater consideration should be given to upside risks to prices,' with one member explicitly floating a faster pace of hikes than markets currently expect.

BoJ Policy Board voted 8-1 to hold at 1.00% on 31 July; hawkish member Hajime Takata dissented in favor of an immediate hike to 1.25%. JGB 10Y yield has climbed to a fresh 30-year high near 2.94-2.95% on mounting fiscal concerns and growing expectations of an imminent BoJ hike. The yen is additionally attracting intermittent safe-haven bids amid the Iran/Hormuz standoff and elevated cross-asset volatility, and CFTC data show speculative JPY net-long positioning rising sharply. Next live meeting: October 2026. No newer official BoJ communication found since 10 Aug.

Bias: Surprise hike delivered by consensus as financial conditions eased; committee sees the OCR settling near 2.75-3.00% by year-end.

RBNZ MPC raised the OCR 25bps to 2.50% by consensus. This remains the most recent RBNZ communication; RBNZ's published decision calendar confirms no scheduled review has occurred since. June/July inflation and PMI data released since confirm the hawkish trajectory (CPI YoY accelerated to 4.1%, Manufacturing PMI at 54.3 easing from a 60.1 spike). No newer RBNZ communication found since 8 July.

Bias: Held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting on 30 July 2026, but the hawkish dissent widened again to 6-3 (from 7-2 in June), with three members -- Greene, Mann and Pill -- now voting for an immediate hike to 4.00%, the largest hawkish minority of Bailey's tenure. Governor Bailey flagged that Middle East-driven energy costs remain the key upside risk to the inflation outlook even as headline CPI cooled faster than expected to 2.6%.

MPC voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%; Greene, Mann and Pill dissented for a 25bp hike to 4.00%. UK 10Y Gilt yield holding near 4.98% as fiscal-policy uncertainty persists alongside rising global yields and elevated energy costs. Next meeting 17 September 2026. No newer MPC communication found since 30 July.

Bias: Held for a sixth consecutive meeting; balancing energy-driven inflation risk from the Iran conflict against soft domestic growth, now complicated by fresh US tariffs on Canadian goods that took effect 20 August 2026, and by continued volatility in oil prices as Hormuz reopening talks remain stalled amid renewed tanker activity restrictions and an expired US-Iran ceasefire.

BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%). No newer BoC communication found since 15 July; next scheduled rate decision is 2 September 2026. WTI trades near $86.31 and Brent near $93.86-94.24 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and the US pursues sweeping new 'economic D-Day' sanctions on Iran; the 20 August US tariff action (up to 50% on a range of Canadian goods) is now in effect, a fresh headwind for the loonie's trade outlook even as firmer oil provides a partial terms-of-trade offset.

Bias: Held for a fifth straight meeting under Chair Warsh, but the 9-3 vote split (three sitting regional presidents dissenting in favor of an immediate 25bp hike) is the most hawkish internal split of Warsh's tenure so far; forward guidance remains stripped from the statement, and Warsh has signaled his Aug 28 Jackson Hole keynote will address 'big questions' rather than near-term guidance.

FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting; dissenters Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all voted for an immediate 25bp hike, the widest FOMC split in roughly two decades. The July minutes, released 19 Aug, confirmed the depth of the hawkish debate but offered no new decision and are explicitly backward-looking; markets have shifted focus entirely to Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as chair, due 28 Aug 10:00 ET, with the next FOMC decision (carrying a fresh dot plot) on 15-16 Sep. September hike odds have fallen further to roughly 31% (from ~33-35% a week earlier) on soft data since the July meeting; Treasury Secretary Bessent has separately doubled the size of long-bond buybacks in an effort to cap yields, with limited success (10Y holding near 4.71-4.74%, 30Y near 5.25%). No newer official FOMC policy communication supersedes the 29 July decision; stance remains authoritative per tone_locked rule.

Bias: Held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026 for a second straight meeting in a unanimous decision, as widely expected, but shifted its forward guidance meaningfully more hawkish: the Board dropped its prior 'balanced' risk framing and explicitly stated it 'will continue to do what is necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise,' now flagging inflation is not expected to return to the target midpoint until late 2027.

RBA Board held the cash rate at 4.35% unanimously on 11 August 2026. Headline inflation eased to 3.8% YoY in June but remains above target. AUD is additionally supported by broad commodity firmness (copper, gold) but pressured by soft Chinese demand data and intermittent risk-off flows tied to the Middle East conflict. No newer communication found since 11 Aug.

Bias: Rate held at the zero bound with elevated FX-intervention readiness to counter safe-haven franc appreciation.

SNB left the policy rate unchanged at 0%, reaffirming FX-intervention readiness given renewed safe-haven demand. Next quarterly assessment due September; no newer communication found. Improving equity risk appetite (VIX down 5.5% on 21 Aug) is dulling the safe-haven bid even as the unresolved Hormuz/Iran standoff keeps intermittent CHF demand alive; CHF's fundamental score remains the weakest among G8 (rising unemployment to 3.0%, falling trade surplus, soft GDP).