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Public view shows each currency's current central bank tone and directional policy bias.
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| Currency | Central Bank | Tone | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP | Bank of England (MPC) | Hawkish | Held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 for a sixth straight meeting by a 6-3 vote (Greene, Mann and Pill voting for an immediate 25bp hike), but the hold is fraying. Governor Bailey (25 Sep: it is going to get harder to maintain that stance the longer energy prices stay high) and Deputy Governors Lombardelli, Breeden and Ramsden (24-28 Sep) have leaned towards a hike. Newest communication (6 Oct): MPC member Mann told a TS Lombard conference that inflation above target has become embedded in the UK economy, said the labour market is static rather than loose, and flagged particular concern that inflation looks set to reach around 4% or higher at the turn of the year, just as wage negotiations start; this follows her 1 October Nomura remarks that Bank Rate needs to rise because real financial conditions remain too loose. The dovish voices remain Taylor (29 Sep: further hikes not compelling without clearer second-round evidence) and Dhingra (24 Sep: financial conditions have already done much of the tightening). A majority for a November hike is within reach. |
| AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | Hawkish | The RBA Monetary Policy Board unanimously raised the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, the fourth hike of 2026 (100bp cumulative) and the highest level since 2011, saying inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising: the Middle East conflict has broadened, global energy prices are much higher than assumed in the August forecasts, AI-related demand is lifting technology-goods prices, domestic capacity pressure persists and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. The Board said it will do what is necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate further if needed, but also noted the three earlier hikes have tightened financial conditions and the economy appears to be slowing. Governor Bullock's press-conference tone was read as cautious, tempering the hawkish message. |
| USD | Federal Reserve (FOMC) | Hawkish | The FOMC unanimously (12-0) raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September 2026, its first hike since July 2023. The newest official communication, the minutes released 7 October (18:00 UTC), showed all 19 participants backed the hike and that most judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, with no indication of timing and officials approaching each meeting with an open mind; many called the hike insurance against inflation that has run above 2% for more than five years, and several said the prior rate was not restrictive or only mildly restrictive, citing energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, AI-related demand and tariffs. Since the meeting the leadership has leaned against an October move (Jefferson 1 Oct, Williams 29 Sep, Hammack 2 Oct) while Daly (6 Oct), Schmid (6 Oct), Logan (1 Oct), Collins (1 Oct) and Kashkari (30 Sep) argue that further tightening is needed. Chair Warsh has given no explicit forward guidance. Tone stays Hawkish; intensity reflects an October pause with a December-hike path. |
| NZD | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | Hawkish | Hiked the OCR 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September 2026 by consensus (a second straight hike), with Governor Breman saying further hikes are likely but their timing is highly uncertain and the Bank is not on a preset course. On 4 September Assistant Governor Silk said the Committee is more likely to hold in October and consider another hike in December, tempering near-term hawkishness. On 22 September Governor Breman said that if recent gains in global oil prices persist, inflation would run somewhat higher than previously forecast, while noting the economic recovery is expected to strengthen and broaden -- nudging the tone marginally more hawkish than the 4 September signal. |
| JPY | Bank of Japan (BoJ) | Hawkish | Raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September 2026, the highest since 1995 and the second hike in three months, by a 7-2 vote (Asada and Sato dissenting); Governor Ueda said the Bank will keep raising rates if the economy and prices develop as projected, and that the focus has shifted from lifting inflation to anchoring it around 2%. The 1 October Summary of Opinions showed some members wanting a faster pace if upside price deviation emerges, while two favoured holding because headline CPI is below 2%. Latest: Governor Ueda (6 Oct, National Securities Convention, first major remarks since the hike) said the economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weaknesses, that the price trend is approaching 2% and that it is important to anchor underlying inflation around 2%, keeping the Bank on a gradual tightening path with no signal of an October move; the speech scored 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with his historical average. Reuters-cited sources (6 Oct) said some policymakers remain cautious about another hike this month. Deputy Governor Uchida (5 Oct) called AI a big positive demand shock that has eased financial conditions, while warning of correction risk. Tone stays Hawkish but intensity is trimmed to reflect a December-hike base case. |
| EUR | European Central Bank (ECB) | Hawkish | The Governing Council raised all three key ECB interest rates by 25bp on 10 September 2026 (deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%), citing Middle East-driven inflation pressure, and kept guidance data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting. The newest official communication, an ANSA interview with Chief Economist Lane published on 6 October (conducted 1 Oct), is more balanced: the energy shock has been the main driver of the rate increases and energy prices are above the ECB baseline, but strong second-round effects have not been seen so far, pass-through to the wider economy remains uncertain, it is too simplistic to say the euro area is in the adverse or baseline scenario, and higher long-term yields driven by global factors (including the AI investment boom) slow growth and lower inflation on their own and will be weighed in the rate decision. This echoes Bank of Finland Governor Rehn (2 Oct), who said soaring long-term yields will limit pass-through to prices and wages, while Governing Council member DeMarco (29 Sep) backed an October hike and Bundesbank's Nagel (30 Sep) said rates may need to move into mildly restrictive territory depending on energy prices. Tone remains Hawkish (energy-driven hiking bias intact) but intensity is trimmed again as officials explicitly allow the bond selloff to do part of the tightening; December is the consensus window for the next move. |
| CAD | Bank of Canada (BoC) | Neutral | Held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision on 2 September 2026 (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%). The 16 September Summary of Governing Council Deliberations showed members agreed inflation will stay elevated near term because of energy prices, with little evidence so far of broad pass-through; they also worried that new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures could chill confidence, spending and hiring. Governor Macklem (21 Sep) said the Bank does not want to be late to hike if inflation proves stubborn, but also does not want to raise rates and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained, so tariff-related growth risk keeps the stance neutral. The newest communication, Senior Deputy Governor Rogers' 1 October housing-affordability speech, called the policy rate a blunt tool that should not target house prices and offered no new rate signal. |
| CHF | Swiss National Bank (SNB) | Neutral | The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0% on 24 September 2026, as universally expected (all 35 economists in a Reuters poll). Chairman Martin Schlegel said inflation has risen further since June -- to 0.8% y/y in August -- mainly on higher energy prices and a weaker franc, and the Bank raised its conditional inflation forecast slightly (0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 2028, versus 0.6%/0.6%/0.7% previously), while stressing medium-term inflationary pressure has increased 'only slightly' and the outlook stays within the price-stability range. The SNB also dialled down its earlier heightened readiness to intervene against rapid franc appreciation, reflecting the fact the franc has already eased somewhat. In a Swiss radio (SRF) interview published 26 September Schlegel said the SNB is in a comfortable position with its inflation forecasts right in the middle of the 0-2% range and its price-stability concerns no higher than usual, while acknowledging that international central banks are raising rates. |