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Public view shows each currency's current central bank tone and directional policy bias.
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| Currency | Central Bank | Tone | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Federal Reserve (FOMC) | Hawkish | Held for a fifth straight meeting under Chair Warsh, but the 9-3 vote split (three sitting regional presidents dissenting in favor of an immediate 25bp hike) is the most hawkish internal split of Warsh's tenure so far; forward guidance remains stripped from the statement, and Warsh has signaled his Aug 28 Jackson Hole keynote will address 'big questions' rather than near-term guidance. |
| JPY | Bank of Japan (BoJ) | Hawkish | Held the policy rate at 1.00% on 31 July 2026 as universally expected following June's hike to a 30-year high, and the 10 August Summary of Opinions from that meeting confirmed an unambiguously hawkish internal debate: board members flagged that underlying CPI is approaching 2% and that 'greater consideration should be given to upside risks to prices,' with one member explicitly floating a faster pace of hikes than markets currently expect. |
| EUR | European Central Bank (ECB) | Hawkish | Held all three key rates unchanged on 23 July 2026 as expected, pausing after June's first hike since 2023 to assess the intensity and duration of the renewed Middle East energy shock; Governing Council reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no explicit forward guidance, but markets price a high probability of a 25bp hike to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting. |
| AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | Hawkish | Held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026 for a second straight meeting in a unanimous decision, as widely expected, but shifted its forward guidance meaningfully more hawkish: the Board dropped its prior 'balanced' risk framing and explicitly stated it 'will continue to do what is necessary to bring inflation back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise,' now flagging inflation is not expected to return to the target midpoint until late 2027. |
| GBP | Bank of England (MPC) | Hawkish | Held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting on 30 July 2026, but the hawkish dissent widened again to 6-3 (from 7-2 in June), with three members -- Greene, Mann and Pill -- now voting for an immediate hike to 4.00%, the largest hawkish minority of Bailey's tenure. Governor Bailey flagged that Middle East-driven energy costs remain the key upside risk to the inflation outlook even as headline CPI cooled faster than expected to 2.6%. |
| NZD | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | Hawkish | Surprise hike delivered by consensus as financial conditions eased; committee sees the OCR settling near 2.75-3.00% by year-end. |
| CAD | Bank of Canada (BoC) | Neutral | Held for a sixth consecutive meeting; balancing energy-driven inflation risk from the Iran conflict against soft domestic growth, now complicated by fresh US tariffs on Canadian goods that took effect 20 August 2026, and by continued volatility in oil prices as Hormuz reopening talks remain stalled amid renewed tanker activity restrictions and an expired US-Iran ceasefire. |
| CHF | Swiss National Bank (SNB) | Neutral | Rate held at the zero bound with elevated FX-intervention readiness to counter safe-haven franc appreciation. |