What is inside
Public view shows each currency's current central bank tone and directional policy bias.
Members get deeper intelligence layers including score-weighted ranking, regime change signals, and cross-market context.
| Currency | Central Bank | Tone | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Federal Reserve System (Federal Open Market Committee) | Hawkish | Rates held at 3.50-3.75%; dot plot revised sharply higher with median 3.8% end-2026 target; 9 of 18 members project at least one hike. Easing bias language stripped entirely under new Chair Warsh. |
| JPY | Bank of Japan (Policy Board) | Hawkish | BOJ raised policy rate 25bp to 1.00% on June 16 — highest since 1995 — continuing gradual normalisation. Officials see scope for further hikes given negative real rates and persistent inflation above 2%. Gradual path but clear tightening direction. |
| EUR | European Central Bank (ECB Governing Council) | Hawkish | ECB delivered first rate hike since 2023 on June 11, raising deposit rate to 2.25%. Inflation forecast revised to 3.0% for 2026. Governing Council flags Middle East energy shock as primary driver; stands ready to tighten further. |
| AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA Board) | Hawkish | Cash rate held at 4.35% on June 16, third consecutive hold after three hikes earlier in 2026. RBA tone explicitly hawkish: further hikes not ruled out. Iran conflict energy shock flagged as upside inflation risk. Big four banks split on whether further hikes occur. |
| GBP | Bank of England (Monetary Policy Committee) | Hawkish | Rates held at 3.75% but with strong hawkish undertone; April vote 8-1 for hold vs hike. June 18 MPC decision released today — widely expected hold but hawkish split. Markets pricing ~50bp of further tightening over 12 months. |
| NZD | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Monetary Policy Committee) | Neutral | OCR held at 2.25% at May 27 meeting. Easing cycle complete after 325bp of cuts from 5.50% peak. RBNZ signals it expects to raise rates this year to contain Iran-driven inflation. Neutral currently but hawkish lean forming. |
| CAD | Bank of Canada (Governing Council) | Neutral | Fifth consecutive hold at 2.25%. Governor Macklem explicitly described a 'two-directional bind': soft GDP (Q1 contracted) vs rising oil-driven inflation at 2.8%. No easing or tightening bias — genuinely data-dependent. |
| CHF | Swiss National Bank (Governing Board) | Neutral | Policy rate held at 0.00% at June 18 quarterly meeting. SNB faces near-zero inflation (0.1% Feb), tiny energy-driven uptick. Primary concern is excessive CHF appreciation not inflation. Interventionist FX stance but no rate change. |